The collapse of the American doctrine: What Trump’s weakness reveals – How Iran has rewritten the rules of global power

For decades, the strategic imagination of the West—and particularly the United States—was trapped in a singular delusion: that military superiority automatically translates into political power. Washington operated for years on the premise that its carrier strike groups, B-52 bombers, and satellite-guided munitions could eventually force any nation into submission.
Iran, however, has systematically deconstructed this illusion—not once, but twice within the last year. Recent developments surrounding Donald Trump’s repeated retreats from direct confrontation with Iran are not mere tactical hesitation but a structural revelation. They demonstrate, beyond any reasonable doubt, that the balance of power has shifted. Influence is no longer an American monopoly, and on the other side of the table—or rather, the battlefield—Iran has emerged as a central center of gravity.

The anatomy of the retreat

To understand today’s strategic landscape, one must first record the events. Since tensions escalated, the world has witnessed a series of American retreats—both military and strategic. Donald Trump, a president who built his political profile on the rhetoric of decisive action and "maximum pressure," has now backed away from confrontation with Iran not once or twice, but at least five times—and according to some Western media, six times in less than three months.

First retreat

The first was the abandonment of the threat to destroy Iran and its critical infrastructure.

Second retreat

This followed the failure of talks in Islamabad when the US unilaterally extended the ceasefire, indirectly acknowledging that it cannot dictate terms.

Third retreat

There was the highly publicized operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, codenamed "Freedom Project," which was canceled less than 48 hours after its announcement.

Fourth retreat

This followed a direct clash between Iranian forces and three American warships in the strategic waterway, after which Washington insisted on a ceasefire, effectively absorbing a tactical blow without responding.

Fifth retreat

The most recent instance was the cancellation of all planned military operations against Iran, with Donald Trump presenting the decision as a "gesture of goodwill" toward Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Western media note that even these five retreats underestimate the true picture, as there were up to six instances where American ultimatums were simply abandoned and allowed to expire. These are not isolated episodes, but a structural pattern.

The absence of an ultimatum

The most critical element is that there are no longer even any ultimatums. In previous cases, Donald Trump at least set time limits and created the image of an imminent war. Now, even that is gone. The absence of a threat shows something deeper: Washington has internalized its own weakness. The superpower no longer pretends to be preparing to strike because it knows it cannot cross Iran's red lines.

The clash of myth and power

American foreign policy is based on a culture of coercion. For decades, sanctions, military interventions, and threats of regime change functioned as tools of pressure. Iran, however, met this logic with systematic resistance. No war scenario examined by American headquarters results in a clean victory. There is no rapid collapse. There is only prolonged conflict with a potential strategic defeat for the US. Iranian threats are fully credible and operationally proven. Meanwhile, the internal cohesion of Iranian society strengthens Tehran’s position. Thus, American threats lose their deterrent power and turn into empty noise.

Three strategic deadlocks for the US

If today’s strategic field is mapped, there are three primary options for Washington—all of them problematic.

1. War A new military front would find an Iran significantly stronger, with developed missile, naval, drone, and cyber capabilities. The outcome would be extremely uncertain and potentially catastrophic for the US.

2. Acceptance of Iranian terms This would be equivalent to a political admission of defeat: lifting sanctions, returning assets, and strategic withdrawal. For the American political system, such a move is almost unthinkable.

3. Maintaining the status quo The "neither war nor peace" option gradually strengthens Iran, increases its regional power, and burdens the US and its allies with economic and geopolitical instability. The inability to choose constitutes strategic paralysis.

The Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue

Two elements define the balance of power: the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes, serves as a strategic lever of pressure. The nuclear program acts as a deterrent mechanism. Together, they form a comprehensive architecture of deterrence.

The new geopolitical dilemma

The West presents a simplistic dilemma: negotiation or war. Iran responds with a third option: resistance with strategic consistency. Tehran insists that every negotiation must ensure sovereignty and security. Otherwise, resistance remains the only option.

The geometry of power has changed

Donald Trump’s retreats are not tactical maneuvers, but indicators of structural strategic weakness. Iran has turned survival into strategic power. The US still possesses military might, but lacks political effectiveness against an adversary that has fully understood asymmetric deterrence. The geometry of power is no longer linear. It is multipolar. And in this new geometry, Iran is at the center of gravity.

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